Cross-Domain Panel: What the Passing Package Adds Up To
Prof. Laura Pennington (#97, operations research, C) & Prof. Beatrice Lang (#13, accounting, C) — Cross-Domain Panel
Drafted while the ballot results are under embargo; not yet posted.
Scope. This covers the 37 proposals that passed the bridge rule under at least one model. 15 are robust (they passed under both Sonnet and Opus). 22 are fragile (they passed under one model only: S = Sonnet only, O = Opus only). Figures come from the audit-corrected ballot packet unless we cite a primary source. Where we checked a primary source, the section below on verification says so. Where no estimate exists, we say "no score" and don't make one up.
Sign convention. Figures are 10-year federal budget effects. A negative number (−) is deficit reduction or savings. A positive number (+) is a cost.
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1. Package ledger
1a. Robust set (15 items, passed under both models)
ID · Title · 10-yr federal budget effect · Source / basis
01-P5 · Exempt residential building materials from §232 · No score. Revenue loss, not estimated. · Packet: "No official score. Revenue loss."
02-P8 · Medicare site-neutral payments · −$39B (all off-campus HOPD services) to −$141B (plus on-campus office-type services, −$102B). The two are scored separately and there is no combined score. · CBO scores of FY2021 President's-budget proposals, via KFF Five Things to Know About Medicare Site-Neutral Payment Reforms (verified). These are old windows (2021–30), so current-window savings would likely be higher. CRFB puts the 2025 Same Care, Lower Cost Act at ~$150B (a CRFB estimate, not a CBO score).
03-P1 · Site-neutral Medicare payment, staged · Duplicate of 02-P8. Counted once. Same −$39B / −$141B. · Same as 02-P8. The packet rates the older "well over $150B" figure as Wrong.
03-P2 · Hospital price transparency in dollars, with a data feed to purchasers and enforcers · No score. Minimal federal cost. · Packet
04-P3 · National Emergencies Act sunset; no tariffs under emergency statutes · No score. Our inference: close to $0 against CBO's July 2026 baseline, because IEEPA duties were already terminated and the §122 duties expired on 24 Jul 2026. · CBO, Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026 (verified)
08-P2 · Enforcement transparency; GAO audit of cost per removal · No score. "Minor" cost. · Packet
09-P3 · Connect-and-manage interconnection, surplus interconnection, large-load tariff · No score. Largely regulatory. · Packet
10-P4 · Remove EITC marriage penalties (full parity) · No score. It is a cost. · Packet. A broader AEI design costs ~$35B/yr per AEI Tax-Brain, but it is a different design (phase-out starting at $40k with a 10% phase-out rate). That figure is not comparable and is not used here.
10-P8 · Replace broad tariffs with targeted national-security tariffs over 3 years · No score. The item gives up a "large share" of ~$1.9T in 10-year tariff revenue (packet). Every 10% of that base given up is about +$190B. · Packet. CBO's February 2026 baseline credited tariffs with −$3.0T including interest. CBO's July 2026 update adds +$0.9T to 2027–36 deficits. That leaves roughly −$2.1T; the budget windows differ (verified).
11-P1 · Audit-linked DoD funding fence · $0 by design. Funds are withheld and later released, not rescinded. This is a design claim, not a score. · Packet
12-P8 · Tariffs require express enactment by Congress and are scored as taxes · No score. "No direct budget cost." Revenue is at risk if Congress declines to enact the tariffs. · Packet
13-P6 · Bell-to-bell school phone restrictions, with mandatory evaluation (federal grants) · No score. Small grant program. · Packet
14-P4 · Home-based child-care supply package · No score. Minimal cost. · Packet
14-P8 · Evaluation and data mandate for care policy · No score. Small cost. · Packet
15-P3 · Speech & Lawful-Enforcement Act · No score. Modest administrative cost. · Packet
Robust-set total (scored items only): −$39B to −$141B over 10 years. That is roughly −$4B to −$14B a year.
- The 15 IDs cover 14 distinct policies, because 02-P8 and 03-P1 are the same policy.
- Only one policy (2 IDs) has a score. 13 IDs are unscored. One of those, 11-P1, is budget-neutral by design.
- Four unscored items (10-P8, 12-P8, 01-P5, and 04-P3 at the margin) point toward revenue loss on a tariff base of roughly $1.9T. The sign of the whole robust package therefore depends on items that have no score. Section 3 gives the arithmetic.
1b. Fragile set (22 items, passed under one model only)
ID · Passed under · Title · 10-yr federal budget effect · Source / basis
01-P1 · O · State by-right "missing middle + transit" zoning · No score (state policy). Right to counsel adds modest state costs. · Packet
02-P6 · S · Legislative tariff scoring rule · No score. A scoring convention with no policy effect. It would shrink the reported baseline tariff offset. · Packet. The IEEPA ruling already removed $0.9T from the 2027–36 baseline (CBO July 2026, verified).
03-P3 · O · Health-care competition package (HSR thresholds, contract-clause bans, FTC funding) · No score. FTC funding is a cost. · Packet
03-P8 · O · Nurse-practitioner full-practice-authority FMAP bonus plus GME expansion · No score. It is a cost (+1 point FMAP; new GME slots). · Packet
05-P1 · O · Ban mid-decade congressional redistricting (from 2032) · No score. Negligible. · Packet
06-P1 · O · Evidence-conditioned high-dosage tutoring · No score (state-funded). $3,500–$4,300 per student per year. · Packet
06-P2 · O · Science-of-reading package · No score (state). · Packet
06-P4 · O · Bell-to-bell phones, non-punitive enforcement (state mandate) · No score. Low cost. · Packet
06-P8 · O · Career academies and apprenticeship, with RCT evaluation · No score. Matching grants are a cost. · Packet
07-P5 · O · Focused deterrence and CVI, with mandatory evaluation · No score. Grants are a cost. READI's claimed social return of 4:1 to 18:1 is not a budget score. · Packet
08-P4 · O · High-skill immigration modernization · No score. The fiscal direction is favorable: college-educated immigrants have a net present value of +$395k to +$726k each (NAS/Dallas Fed). · Packet
09-P1 · S · Two-way permit certainty (150-day statute of limitations) · No score. Staffing cost not verified. · Packet
11-P3 · S · War-powers reform · No score. · Packet
11-P7 · O · Shipyard and submarine-maintenance recovery · No score. It is a cost. Idle-submarine costs, which it could reduce, are projected at $3.1B for 2026–30 (GAO-26-109256). · Packet
12-P5 · O · Tax carried interest as ordinary income · −$13B (JCT, 2025–34, via CBO Budget Options, Dec 2024, verified) to −$100B (Yale Budget Lab, broad version, May 2026). The packet also cites −$15B for 2026–35, pre-OBBBA. · CBO option 60946; packet
12-P6 · S · Let the 2025 tips/overtime/senior/car-loan deductions expire; raise the standard deduction instead · No score. About $0 by design against a baseline that assumes the deductions are extended. It is a cost against current law, which already lets them expire; that cost is unscored. · Packet. Tax Foundation 2025–34 costs of the four provisions total $340B.
13-P2 · O · Data-broker registry and one-stop deletion · No score. Fee-fundable. · Packet
13-P4 · O · KIDS Act framework (KOSA + COPPA 2.0) · No score. · Packet
13-P7 · S · Telecom cyber baseline, CISA restoration, TikTok JV audit · No score. CISA restaffing is a cost. · Packet
14-P5 · O · Direct-care worker immigration pathway · No score. · Packet
14-P6 · O · Family caregiver credit plus funded respite · No score. Partially refundable credit plus grants; clearly a cost. · Packet. No JCT score of Credit for Caring was verified.
16-P4 · O · Knowledge-rich civics and U.S. history · No score. Paid for within existing appropriations. · Packet
Robust plus fragile total (scored items only): −$52B to −$241B over 10 years. This is site-neutral (−$39B to −$141B) plus carried interest (−$13B to −$100B).
- Only 3 of the 37 IDs have a score (two distinct policies). 34 IDs are unscored.
- At least six unscored fragile items are clear costs: 03-P8, 06-P8, 07-P5, 11-P7, 13-P7 and 14-P6.
- One unscored item, 12-P6, is a cost against current law.
Our bottom line on the ledger. In both sets, the scored savings are small next to the unscored tariff exposure. The honest summary is that the net sign of the package cannot be determined without a CBO/JCT score of 10-P8's phase-down and of 12-P8's 150-day lapse rule.
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2. Interactions
# · Pair / cluster · Type · Mechanism · Magnitude if known
1 · 02-P8 ↔ 03-P1 (site-neutral, domains 02 and 03) · Duplicate · The same policy was ballotted twice. 03-P1 adds an explicit rural, critical-access and sole-community hold-harmless. · Count −$39B to −$141B once. Adding the two would wrongly report −$78B to −$282B.
2 · 06-P4 ↔ 13-P6 (school phone bans) · Duplicate / reinforce · 06-P4 is a state mandate. 13-P6 is federal grants plus pre-registered evaluation. 13-P6's evaluation needs states that have adopted 06-P4-type rules; 26+ already have. · Florida: +1.1 percentile in year 2; suspensions up 25% in the first month (30% for Black boys).
3 · 12-P8 ↔ 04-P3 ↔ 02-P6 (Article I tariff control) · Duplicate / reinforce · 04-P3 removes tariff authority from IEEPA and §122. 12-P8 makes any tariff over $10B/yr lapse after 150 days unless Congress enacts it, which covers §232 and §301 too. 02-P6 duplicates 12-P8's scoring clause. 12-P8 largely subsumes the other two. · The IEEPA ruling already cost $0.9T (2027–36, CBO). §122 duties already lapsed at 150 days on 24 Jul 2026, so 12-P8 extends that clock to every statute.
4 · 10-P8 ↔ 01-P5 (tariff phase-down vs. building-material exemption) · Duplicate (subset) · 10-P8 keeps only tariffs on semiconductors, critical minerals and defense inputs. Lumber, gypsum and cabinet duties would phase out anyway, so 01-P5 is the early, targeted slice. · Don't add 01-P5's revenue loss on top of 10-P8's. Both are unscored.
5 · 10-P8 / 12-P8 ↔ debt path (every deficit item) · Conflict · The package gives up tariff revenue without replacing it. The only scored offsets are site-neutral and (fragile) carried interest. · Offsets as a share of the ~$1.9T base: robust 2–7%; robust plus fragile 3–13%. Every 10% of the base given up is about +$190B.
6 · 12-P8 ↔ 10-P8 (the retained tariffs) · Conflict / reinforce · The national-security tariffs 10-P8 keeps must, under 12-P8, be enacted or run on a §232 sunset. That makes them more durable legally but puts them at political risk. · Not quantified.
7 · 10-P8 (tariff relief) ↔ 10-P4 (EITC) · Reinforce (distribution) · The tariff burden is regressive: about $1,100 per household per year, or about $820 in 2026 (Tax Foundation). Removing it helps the same low-to-middle-income households that 10-P4 targets. · 10-P4 unscored; no behavioral effect on marriage has been found.
8 · 01-P1 ↔ 14-P4 (by-right zoning) · Reinforce · Both use state preemption of local zoning: 2–4 units by right, and family child-care homes by right. One state bill could carry both. · Family child care was the only growing segment in 2025 (+1.4%).
9 · 01-P1 ↔ 01-P5 · Reinforce · Permission to build (01-P1) and cheaper inputs (01-P5) work on separate constraints. · Construction inputs are up ~40% since 2020 (JCHS). Lumber's share of that rise is unknown; the "modest share" claim was withdrawn.
10 · Immigration labor ↔ housing construction (08-P4, 14-P5 vs. 01-P1/01-P5) · Gap, not an interaction · No focus-set item adds construction labor. 08-P4 reorders the high-skill queue without adding numbers. The enforcement-and-removal path (about 1,000 removals a day) that 08-P2 would measure works the other way. · The packet has no figure for construction labor. Unquantified.
11 · 14-P5 ↔ direct-care workforce ↔ 14-P8 · Reinforce · 14-P5 offsets immigrant attrition from a workforce that is 30% immigrant nationally (60% in NY). 14-P8's home-care waiting-list and workforce series would measure the effect. · EPI projects about −394k direct-care jobs under a 4M-deportation scenario (one study).
12 · 08-P4 ↔ 14-P5 (green-card queue) · Possible conflict · If 14-P5's path to permanent residence draws on existing employment-based numbers, it competes with 08-P4's per-country-cap phase-out and green-card recapture. Waits for applicants not from India lengthen under 08-P4 in any case. · EB backlog 1.8M. Conflict avoided if 14-P5 gets separate numbers.
13 · 03-P8 ↔ 14-P5 · Reinforce · Supply of primary-care and direct-care workers. · GME slots take 7+ years to yield practicing physicians.
14 · 09-P3 large-load tariff ↔ household energy and housing costs · Reinforce (cost causation) · Loads over 50 MW pay their own incremental generation and transmission costs and post collateral. That limits how much data-center-driven capacity cost is socialized onto residential bills, which are part of shelter cost. · PJM capacity costs: $2.2B → $14.7B → $16.1B → $16.4B. The share caused by large load, and the eventual pass-through to households, is not quantified.
15 · 09-P3 ↔ 09-P1 · Reinforce · Interconnection is the largest measured bottleneck, with a median wait over 5 years. Permit certainty helps the network upgrades that connect-and-manage relies on. · ERCOT ~3.5 years vs. PJM/SPP 6+ years. Curtailment in 2022 was ~9% for solar and ~5% for wind.
16 · 09-P3 ↔ tariffs on grid inputs · Possible conflict · Tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper (the §232 duties CBO notes were modified) raise the cost of network upgrades. 10-P8 keeps critical-minerals tariffs. · Not quantified.
17 · 11-P1 audit fence ↔ munitions ramp (11-P2, not in the focus set) and ↔ 11-P7 shipyards · Conflict (bounded) · The fence withholds 1% of O&M. Munitions multiyear buys are mostly procurement, so the direct overlap with 11-P2 is small. The fence would hit sustainment accounts: F-35 spares-pool findings are prioritized, and public-shipyard maintenance (11-P7) is O&M-funded. The national-security waiver limits the damage. · 1% of affected components' O&M, starting FY2028, and released after remediation. DoD has 26 material weaknesses (FY25).
18 · 03-P1 ↔ 03-P3 ↔ 03-P2 · Reinforce · Site-neutral removes the payment incentive to buy physician practices. 03-P3 lowers merger-review thresholds for the same deals. 03-P2 sends price data to the FTC and state AGs. Tension: price transparency can help coordination in concentrated markets. · Hospital monopolies charge about 12% more (Cooper et al.).
19 · 03-P1 ↔ rural/safety-net ↔ 03-P8 · Partial offset · The site-neutral revenue hit falls on safety-net hospitals: 3.2% of OPPS hospitals' Medicare revenue (MedPAC). 03-P8's rural GME slots help access in the same places but don't offset the revenue loss. · —
20 · 04-P3 ↔ 11-P3 ↔ 15-P3 ↔ 12-P8 (limits on executive power) · Reinforce, with a capacity conflict · Four new approval clocks (30-day emergencies, 60-day hostilities, 150-day tariffs, 72-hour disclosure) all land on a Congress that had 120 funding-gap days in FY2026 and passes appropriations 104 days late on average. A missed deadline defaults to the executive power ending. · —
21 · Evaluation cluster: 13-P6, 14-P8, 08-P2, 06-P1, 06-P8, 07-P5, 16-P4 · Reinforce / shared bottleneck · 7 of 37 items mandate an RCT, a pre-registered evaluation, an audit or a data series. That is a shared demand on evaluator capacity (IES, GAO, ASPE, DOL) that no item funds explicitly. · —
22 · 12-P6 ↔ 10-P4 · Neutral · Raising the standard deduction doesn't change EITC phase-outs, so the two don't interfere. · —
23 · 13-P2 ↔ 13-P4 ↔ 13-P7 · Reinforce · FTC enforcement capacity is shared across broker registry, teen privacy and security. PADFA-style national-security framing is common to them. · FTC capacity is not quantified.
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3. What the robust package does not touch
Failure diagnosed · Scale (sourced) · What the robust package does · How much of the problem it plausibly addresses
Debt path · CBO, Feb 2026 (verified): deficit $1.9T (5.8% of GDP) in 2026, rising to $3.1T by 2036. Debt held by the public goes from 101% to 120% of GDP. · Site-neutral: −$39B to −$141B over 10 years. 11-P1 is neutral. The tariff items remove revenue. · Our lower bound on 10-year cumulative deficits is ≥$19T, taking deficits as at least $1.9T every year, which is conservative. On that basis, scored robust savings are ≤0.75% of cumulative deficits, or 0.2–0.7% of the 2026 deficit at an annual rate. **Net, the robust package plausibly widens the gap: giving up even 10% of the ~$1.9T tariff base (+$190B) outweighs the top site-neutral score. The package touches none of Social Security (02-P1 failed), tax expenditures (02-P4 failed) or a fiscal commission (02-P3 failed). Share of the deficit gap closed: about 0%, and possibly negative.**
Coverage · CBO: +10M uninsured by 2034 from the 2025 law, and +4.2M from expiry of the enhanced premium tax credits (packet). · Nothing directly. Site-neutral cuts beneficiary cost-sharing: MedPAC estimated $1.5B in 2021 under full alignment. · About 0% of the ~14M coverage loss. The coverage items (03-P5, 03-P6 automation) did not pass. 03-P8 (fragile) addresses access, not coverage.
Health prices · Commercial hospital prices average 254% of Medicare (RAND). · Site-neutral (Medicare only) and price transparency. · Partial on Medicare. On commercial prices the effect is unknown: transparency has no causal evidence behind it, and 03-P3 is fragile.
Housing affordability · Inputs up ~40% since 2020. Combined Canadian lumber duty ~45%. · 01-P5 (inputs) and 14-P4 (child-care zoning only). · Small and unquantified. The binding supply constraint (by-right zoning, 01-P1) is only fragile. No voucher, LIHTC or ROAD Act item passed. The lumber share of costs has never been decomposed. 09-P3 may limit electricity-bill growth.
Mobility and opportunity · Children living with married parents fell from 77% to 63% (1980–2019). · 10-P4 (EITC parity) and 13-P6 (phones). · Marginal. 10-P4 has no measured behavioral effect. 13-P6 gives +1.1 percentile in year 2. The interventions with measured effect sizes are all fragile: tutoring at 0.14–0.16 SD at scale, career academies at +11% earnings, science of reading. The CMTO-style mobility items did not pass.
Trust and institutional legitimacy · Trust in the federal government: 17% (Pew, 2025). Institutional confidence: 27%. · 04-P3, 12-P8, 15-P3, 08-P2, 11-P1: transparency and Article I process. · Addresses process failures, not the trust level itself. None of the items has causal evidence that it moves trust. They are best read as reducing the risk of events like executive tariffs and jawboning, not as rebuilding confidence.
Energy and grid · Interconnection queue: 549 GW signed but unbuilt, 75% attrition. · 09-P3. · This is the robust set's most direct hit on a binding constraint, although no estimate of GW connected or dollars saved exists.
Summary. The robust package is a governance-and-accounting package. It improves process, transparency and the legal durability of tariff decisions, plus one scored health saving. It does not deal with the three problems that dominate on budget or welfare size: the debt path, coverage and housing supply. Its biggest fiscal effect, the loss of tariff revenue, runs against the debt diagnosis and has no score.
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4. Implementation sequencing
Routes. EXEC = executive or agency action. STATE = state law. CONG = Congress (authorization, appropriations or NDAA).
ID · Route · Notes and dependencies
Robust · ·
01-P5 · EXEC (a §232 proclamation can modify its own duties) · Quickest available win. Superseded if 10-P8 is enacted. The AD/CVD duties need negotiation.
02-P8 / 03-P1 · CONG for the scored savings. Partial EXEC. · CMS extended clinic-visit site-neutrality to off-campus HOPDs by rule in 2019. The CBO savings above are for statutory versions. Stage (a) off-campus comes before (b) on-campus. Pair with the rural hold-harmless.
03-P2 · EXEC (CMS/Treasury/DOL rules, penalties) plus CONG (data feed to AGs and fiduciaries, higher penalty caps) · Stronger if 03-P3 (FTC) funding follows.
04-P3 · CONG (NEA/IEEPA amendments; veto exposure) · Sequence with 12-P8. Needs the sanctions grandfather clause from day one.
08-P2 · EXEC can restore OHSS monthly data now. CONG needed to bind it. · Should come before any new enforcement appropriation ("demand the number before appropriating").
09-P3 · EXEC/independent agency (FERC interconnection rules) plus STATE (PUC retail large-load tariffs; Texas already acted) plus optional CONG (Ratepayer Protection Act passed the House 417–3) · Benefits grow with 09-P1. Large-load forecasts are volatile: NERC revised up 69%, and Texas's forecast was halved.
10-P4 · CONG (tax) · Needs a score. Natural companion to 12-P6.
10-P8 · EXEC can lower §232/§301 duties itself. CONG needed to make it durable. · Depends on revenue replacement (12-P5 or items that failed). Run the published review before the 3-year phase-down. Better done after 12-P8 so that the lost revenue shows up in scoring.
11-P1 · CONG (NDAA), effective FY2028 · Needs a waiver for readiness-critical O&M, including 11-P7 shipyards.
12-P8 · CONG · Do this first among the tariff items, because it defines scoring for all of them. 02-P6 is redundant if 12-P8 passes.
13-P6 · EXEC guidance plus CONG (grant appropriation) · Relies on state mandates (06-P4; 26+ states). Pre-registration must come before rollout.
14-P4 · CONG (CCDBG condition) plus STATE (zoning, licensing) · Can share a state bill with 01-P1.
14-P8 · CONG (small appropriation) and EXEC (DOL/HHS data series) · Should come before judging 14-P4, 14-P5 or New Mexico's program.
15-P3 · CONG. Part (b) could be adopted as agency policy. · Works together with 04-P3 and 11-P3 as an Article I package.
Fragile · ·
01-P1, 06-P1, 06-P2, 06-P4 · STATE · 06-P1 needs the lottery or phase-in evaluation built into the procurement.
06-P8, 07-P5 · CONG grants plus state/local delivery · Renewal is tied to evaluation results.
02-P6 · CONG / Budget Committees (scoring convention) · Redundant with 12-P8.
03-P3, 03-P8, 05-P1, 09-P1, 11-P3, 12-P5, 13-P4, 14-P5, 14-P6 · CONG · 11-P3 faces veto exposure: two Iran resolutions passed in June 2026 but hostilities continued.
08-P4 · Mixed. EXEC (DHS rule on wage-ranked H-1B selection) and CONG (per-country caps, recapture, stapled green cards) · Check the queue interaction with 14-P5.
11-P7 · CONG (multi-year appropriations; the allied-yard clause needs Jones Act and Byrnes-Tollefson changes) · Exempt from the 11-P1 fence.
12-P6 · Happens by default if Congress does nothing after 2028. The standard-deduction increase needs CONG. · The cheapest item to implement, and the hardest to hold politically.
13-P2 · CONG, or FTC within existing authority, partially. States already act (CA Delete Act). · —
13-P7 · EXEC (FCC/CISA rules; audit) plus CONG (CISA staffing funds) · —
16-P4 · EXEC (existing ESSA and civics grants; the NAGB assessment schedule) · —
Critical path we recommend.
- Executive quick wins in year 1: 01-P5, OHSS data restoration (08-P2), FERC interconnection (09-P3), CMS off-campus site-neutral (stage a), and 14-P8's data series.
- Rules before money: 12-P8 (tariff scoring and lapse), then 04-P3, then 10-P8. If 10-P8 moves without 12-P8, the lost revenue never appears in the scoring.
- Pair any tariff phase-down with scored offsets. Statutory site-neutral and carried interest together cover only 3–13% of the ~$1.9T base, so further offsets must come from items that did not pass.
- Measure, then scale: 13-P6, 14-P8 and 08-P2 come before any expansion of phones, care or enforcement spending.
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Verification notes and limits
Primary sources checked:
- CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (Feb 11, 2026): $1.9T deficit, 5.8% of GDP, $3.1T by 2036, debt 101% → 120%, tariffs −$3.0T.
- CBO, An Update About CBO's Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs (Mar 5, 2026): +$2.0T for 2026–36 after the IEEPA ruling.
- CBO, Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026: +$0.9T for 2027–36; §122 duties expired 24 Jul 2026.
- KFF, Five Things to Know About Medicare Site-Neutral Payment Reforms: CBO $39B and $102B.
- CRFB on the Same Care, Lower Cost Act: ~$150B.
- CBO Budget Option 60946: JCT $13.0B for 2025–34.
Not verified:
- Yale Budget Lab's carried-interest figures (taken from the packet).
- Tax Foundation's household tariff cost.
- Any score for 10-P4, 10-P8 or 12-P8. We found none.
Arithmetic caveats:
- The site-neutral scores come from a 2021–30 window.
- The tariff-base figures ($1.9T, and the ~$2.1T residual) mix budget windows.
- The ≥$19T cumulative-deficit figure is our own conservative lower bound, not a CBO number.